Robs Real Estate Report: January 2011

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The nation celebrates Australia Day

South Bank reopens to the public

25 Jan 11 @ 02:23pm by Belinda Seeney

A man wades through floodwaters at the cultural forecourt end of South Bank parklands.

PARTS of the flood-ravaged South Bank precinct reopened to the public today with about 90 percent of businesses now up and running.
The riverfront parklands were swamped by the Brisbane River with South Bank Corporation CEO Malcolm Snow describing the clean-up as a “mighty, ongoing effort”.
The reopened area includes the Tribune St lawns, the Arbour, Stanley St Plaza and parts of the Cultural Forecourt.
The worst of the flooded area remains closed, including all pools and lagoons, the Riverside Green and riverside restaurants, the Promenade and parts of the Cultural Forecourt.
Restaurants and shopfronts along Little Stanley and Grey streets have also reopened and the Wheel of Brisbane is again operational.
Mr Snow said parts of the parklands are still being cleaned and repaired but a raft of free events and activities were available to visitors, including a Kidzone.
South Bank’s Lifestyle and Young Designer Markets resume this weekend, as does the free Movies on the Green program.
South Bank’s program of events while the clean-up and repair is finalised includes:
MOVIES ON THE GREEN (free) on Glenelg St Lawn every Wednesday to Sunday 7-10pm from January 28 until February 20. Live music from local bands every Friday before each movie screening from 6pm.
KIDSZONE (free) on Tribune Street Lawn from January 31 until February 20 with activities for children under five years from 10am-5pm. They include a giant sand pit, bouncy castle and wave break slide.
LAWN GAMES (free) every day from 10am-9pm and including air hockey, foosball, pinball and table tennis on the lawn. Suitable for all ages and starting January 31.
WHEEL OF BRISBANE is open seven days a week, from 10am-10pm. Tickets onsite or at www.worldtouristattractions.co.uk
YOUNG DESIGNERS MARKET (free) every Sunday in February, 10am-4pm at the Tribune and Glenelg St lawns
LIFESTYLE MARKETS (free) beginning January 28 from 5-10pm and again on Saturday and Sundays from 10am-5pm and 9am-5pm

The Night Rider

Land sales plummet, adding to price squeeze

The Age http://business.theage.com.au/ 18th January

Poll: How do you think the floods in Queensland and elsewhere will affect house prices this year?

Push them higher - there'll be stricter planning, limiting land sales 22%

Push them lower - buyers will be deterred by rising costs and economic disruption 42%

Limited impact 16%

Too hard to tell 20%

Total votes: 3922. Poll closed 19 Jan, 2011

Disclaimer:These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.

Land sales have dropped to decade lows, further eroding the nation's housing affordability as prices continue to rise, according to RPData and the Housing Industry Association.
The volume of nationwide land sales plummeted in the September quarter, falling 57 per cent below the level of a year earlier to 10,000 lots – a level not seen since the September quarter of 2001.
The value of land sold, however, rose 5.2 per cent to a median lot price of $186,629 over the year to September, or 2.8 per cent in the quarter alone.

Even as the pace of sales slows, Australia faces a roughly 200,000-unit housing shortage, HIA estimates, driven by complicated planning processes, a tax policy that encourages buyers to hold multiple homes, and the slow release of suitable land by real estate developers and governments.
Even with the shortage, the International Monetary Fund late last year said the local property market could be as much as 10 per cent overvalued, although private groups estimate prices may be further out of whack.
In Melbourne alone, the median residential lot price rose 15.1 per cent in the year to September and 5.5 per cent in the quarter to $189,950. Land sales in the city staged an even bigger retreat, falling 74.2 per cent in the year to September, to about 1500, the lowest since the March quarter of 1991.
In Sydney the median residential lot value fell 2.2 per cent in the quarter to $269,000, unchanged from a year earlier, while the volume of land sales dropped 56.3 per cent over the year to about 700 lots.

In Brisbane, land values declined for the fourth consecutive quarter, shrinking 8.7 per cent over the year to September to $199,000. The number of lots sold dropped by 57.2 per cent over the year to September to 1000.
'Out of control'
“When the median price of a block of land in Sydney is $269,000 it's easy to see why affordability is spiralling out of control,” said RPData senior research analyst.
“When you add on top of the land cost: professional fees, government charges and the actual cost of constructing a home it's no surprise that many Australian's are forced to remain in the rental market, paying off others' mortgages,” said Mr Kusher.
“Undoubtedly something needs to be done to address affordability constraints and governments at all levels need to realise that it is a serious problem,” he said.
Mr Kusher said there is a disconnect in the market when a full-time working adult earning $68,120 per annum would have to pay between $145,000 in Hobart to $269,000 in Sydney for land to build a house on.
“People looking to purchase the land on which to build a house are paying between two and four times their annual wage just to secure the land,” Mr Kusher said.
Queensland
In the September quarter, Sunshine Coast ranked as the most expensive land market with a median lot price of $280,000, while the least expensive land market was Murray Lands, South Australia, where the equivalent piece of land cost $82,500.
Some analysts expect Queensland's flood-affected areas to see land prices dip, as the property exposed to flood risks may decline in value.

HIA senior economist Andrew Harvey said values for residential lots in floodplains may decline in the aftermath of Queensland disasters.
“Personally, I’d be pretty worried about buying land anywhere near a flood area,” he said.
Conversely, property outside of a flood hazard could rise in value, he said, supporting the market.
czappone@fairfax.com.au

Goodna Floods Clean Up | Goodna Floods 2011 | Pictures, Photos

Goodna Floods Clean Up Goodna Floods 2011 Pictures, Photos

Army of volunteers roll up sleeves in Qld

Puppies find shelter - Local News - News - General - Bayside Bulletin / The Redland Times

Personal perspective: inside the flood clean up - Australian Geographic

Taking back the streets in a flood of generosity - National News - National - General - The Canberra Times

Flood-Hit Victoria Towns Warned to Evacuate as Brisbane Mops Up - Businessweek

It's the end of the world as they know it - and they feel fine

Dream homes at a perilous price | The Australian

Dream homes at a perilous price The Australian

Has Brisbane forgotten to build for the wet?

By Antony Funnell

Updated Fri Jan 14, 2011 7:39am AEDT

A family is silhouetted in front of a flooded street in Milton

A family is silhouetted in front of a flooded street in the Brisbane suburb of Milton, January 12, 2011. (Reuters: Mick Tsikas)

There's a myth that you often hear about old Brisbane houses, that they were built on stilts for ventilation, so that air could swirl under them in the hot summer months. It's one of those stories people mention every now and then. But it's not true.

The stilts allowed wooden houses to be built into the sides of hills and Brisbane is nothing if not a hilly place. It's part of its charm. The ones holding up the front of my house, for example, are over three metres tall. At the back, they're no more than a foot above the ground. Stilts are practical.
The other major reason for this architectural peculiarity was flooding. In the Brisbane of my youth, water flowed across the concrete slab under the house whenever we had a major downpour. Not masses of water, just a steady wash that had come from the neighbour's yard further up the hill.
Until the 1980s it was rare to find a house in the inner-city that wasn't elevated. But then several things occurred: the city's population grew much larger and so did the houses. People began removing the stilts and building in underneath - new bedrooms, living spaces, etc.
At the same time, the climate began to change. The Christmas/new year rainfall seemed not so heavy anymore and not so long. And then during the long drought of the mid-2000s, many people in Brisbane found it difficult to remember that the city had ever been sub-tropical at all, that heavy rain and flooding were part of its DNA.
I remember just a few years ago a builder friend of mine saying that there was going to be trouble. That many of the houses were no longer being built to suit the Brisbane climate. That we'd all become so used to dry conditions that we'd forgotten to build for the wet.
His voice came back to me on Wednesday as I stood at the edge of an expanding brown river: a great mass of steadily rising water that had just swallowed Rosalie Village - a trendy cafe area which my son and I had visited only the day before. Shops, houses and buildings built close to the ground had no chance of staying dry.
Of course, it isn't just that we've been building in an incorrect way. The big problem for a city like Brisbane is that we've also been building in the wrong places.
Three years ago I lived in a newly-constructed house built next to a major creek. There was only a thin strip of parkland separating the wooden fence from the gully. But there were other houses in the area built much closer; and during the short time that I lived there, I watched as developers were allowed to construct an apartment complex of several dozen dwellings literally overlooking the waterway. The back door of one of the ground floor units was no more than a few metres from the creek.
How, I wondered at the time, was that ever allowed. And yet, if you travel around Brisbane you'll find many examples of houses and buildings built in places where water is clearly meant to flow - and eventually does.
In an effort to meet the housing needs of a growing population, government authorities in south-east Queensland (of all political persuasions) have been pursuing policies that promote greater urban density: trying to squeeze more and more people into existing areas of the city, including those areas which have historically experienced flooding.
One of the worst hit suburbs during this current crisis has been Milton. Large tracts of Milton went underwater in 1974 and have experienced minor localised flooding on a regular basis ever since. Yet Milton is one of several designated zones for increased development, including new plans for high-rise residential towers.
Another Brisbane suburb that's also earmarked for higher density development is West End - again, a low-lying area of the city with a long history of flooding. West End was one of the first areas to go under in 1974 and was so again in 2010.
Earlier this year, when researching a program on food security for Radio National, I spoke with social researcher Dr Rebecca Huntley. One of her arguments was that poorly thought-out government policy had allowed urban sprawl to take-over the nutrient rich, productive farmlands that once fringed our cities and were a source of locally grown food.
In other words, in a country where good farming soil is at a premium, we've allowed new suburbs to be built on some of our best land.
Perhaps, in the wake of what's happened in Brisbane this week, it might also be time to question whether that same expansionist urban development mentality has resulted in an unwise push to build more and more dwellings on some of our worst land as well.
And a footnote of interest: Some of the defining images of this flood have been of luxury boats and pontoons washing down the Brisbane River and crashing into pylons. Those images speak a great deal about the way in which Brisbane has changed since the mid 70s.
It's worth pointing out that while many of the same place-names are being mentioned in this flood as in 1974, the affected suburbs themselves have changed remarkably between those two dates. Back in 1974 the inner city suburbs of Brisbane were yet to be gentrified, so the people whose homes were inundated in places like New Farm and Milton and Highgate Hill were largely less well-off.
In 2010, the residents of the inner-city are among the most prosperous. And there are none so wealthy as those who live right on the river. It will be interesting to see whether that significant change in demographics and income-levels ends up impacting on the speed and cost of the recovery this time around.
Antony Funnell presents Future Tense on ABC Radio National

Dozens stranded in Grantham primary school as death toll climbs to nine | Herald Sun

Dozens stranded in Grantham primary school as death toll climbs to nine Herald Sun

Rain, flooded roads all over Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast

Floodwaters Enter Brisbane City

Floodwaters are moving into the Brisbane's inner city suburb of West End, with evacuations already underway in the city's CBD as police urge residents who live near the Brisbane River to move to safer areas.

The Brisbane River has broken its banks with police preparing residents in the inner-city suburb of West End to evacuate. An employee working in West End told ninemsn he saw water spilling over a wall along the edge of the river this morning. "It [the river] was pretty high this morning," said Greg McLeod, who works at a factory at 73 Jane Street, located near the banks of the Brisbane River.

"It had gone over the top of the little wall … it has officially burst its banks, but I'm not sure how far out it's gone. "Our street ends at the river … police are actually at the next intersection stopping people."

Mr MacLeod, a sales manager for Wellborne Corporate Image, said police had not yet told them to evacuate. "They haven't told us to leave but it has been on the radio that we should leave," he said.
"We're trying to move as much stock from downstairs to upstairs as quickly as possible."
Queensland police told ninemsn there was localised flooding in the inner city suburb of West End but could not confirm whether the river had broken its banks. "I do believe there's some localised flooding in West End," a Queensland police spokeswoman said. There are reports that public transport in Brisbane will remain running where possible after earlier reports that it would all be stopped. Brisbane Police have also advised that city bikeways have flooded. Brisbane's Eagle Street Pier was deserted this morning as riverside restaurants evacuated in anticipation of rising river levels, while officer workers evacuated buildings in Fortitude Valley. The Riverwalk in the city has been shut off and the Powerhouse in the New Farm has been closed. Queensland Police Service Facebook updates have said air evacuations of about 300 people are underway in Forest Hill. Residents in Strathpine and Caboolture are also being evacuated as a matter of urgency. Southern Downs Regional Council Mayor, Ron Bellingham, said the Local Disaster Coordination Centre has been re-opened as emergency services workers door-knocked about 150 homes in low-lying areas in Warwick and Allora to encourage residents to be prepared to evacuate.

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Queensland property prices tipped to stay depressed until mid-2011

by Michelle Hele From: The Courier-Mail January 01, 2011 12:00AM

A NEW year will not necessarily bring renewed confidence to the southeast Queensland property market, with predictions it will struggle for at least another six months.

Economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel expects little price growth even if turnover increases.
Senior project manager Angie Zigomanis said that while other states had seen a pick-up this year, Queensland's market was still very weak. "The Queensland market collapsed a little later than other states, so it was natural it would take longer to bounce back," he said. Property analyst Michael Matusik believes there is no end in sight for Queensland's property market slump, which is stuck in a buyer's market.
He predicts sales will decline, properties will take longer to sell, there will be little or no price growth, and there will be slight falls in value during the year.

"Higher interest rates also have affected people's ability – or need or want – to pay higher prices, so it has caused a slow down in prices as well," he said. "I think the year will start off fairly subdued, but I think as 2011 wears on you will start to see first-home buyer demand pick up again, probably in the second half of the year." "We expect the interest rates environment to be a little more steady (this year) with only one or two more rises. "So people will start to gain a bit more confidence."
Mr Zigomanis predicts the first interest rate rise will be about June, and the second in the December quarter.
He also believes investors may decide to re-enter the market towards the end of 2011.
Despite advertised stock levels falling away in the usual Christmas slow down, the total number of properties on the market was still 20 per cent higher than in 2009. Australian Property Monitors predicts homebuyer activity to remain restrained in most markets early this year, with potential price growth by mid-year. Its annual state-of-the-market report found that while Perth and Sydney would see strong price growth next year, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide would experience more modest growth.
Senior economist Dr Andrew Wilson said house and unit prices in most markets slowed this year.

Wivenhoe Dam | Seqwater

The Nation Celebrates Australia Day